1-23-11 Central warns of compromising its independence and calls on the Federal Court to clarify its decision

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. CBI advisor said that he has concerns of the Federal Court decision to link a number of independent bodies referred to in the Constitution directly under the Prime Minister and not under the House
2. Saleh said the linkage as defined by the Federal Court is vague and not sufficient to affirm the autonomy of the bank
3. Saleh warned that undermining the independence of the CBI will lead to opening the door to foreign court's taking Iraq's funds in the event of a suit against Iraq
4. Saleh said according to Article 103 (paragraph 2), the CBI answers to the Council of Representatives

1-23-11 Maliki, Allawi, Jaafari meets periodically to resolve the security ministries and Policy Council

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this posting

1. Maliki, Allawi, and Jaafari will meet periodically throughout the week to resolve the security positions and the National Council of the policies
2. The candidate of the Ministry of Electricity proposed to increase the electricity for citizens to 18 hours per day by 1.5 years, but his proposal Maliki an no other party has responded

1-23-11 Iraqi finance minister vowed to insert Kurdish demands in budget bill

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. The Kurdistan Finance Minister vowed to incorporate the Kurdish demands in the 2011 budget
2. Kurdistan budget was decreased from 17% to 11.6%
3. Iraqi minister promised that the agreements between Baghdad and Erbil over Kurdistan oil exports and reimbursing foreign oil companies in Kurdistan will be included in the 2011 budget
4. Iraqi minister also promised to consider the Kurdish viewpoint on the modification of the budget prior to submitting it for final voting
5. The Peshmerga forces continues to be an issue that needs to be resolved

1-23-11 Ziad worldwide abolition: House of Representatives will host the heads of bodies to discuss the final accounts

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Prior to the adoption of the 2011 budget, Parliament will host the heads of agencies and institutions to review the 2010 financial statements

1-22-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.    Barzani initiative includes agreement on Iraq security

2.    Maliki's visit to the state of Kuwait

3.    Biden hopes to see Iraq maintain security

4.    National Alliance reveals the launch of new candidates for the security ministries

5.    Iraq deputy minister to delay selection of security ministers

6.    Iraq calls on government to take urgent decision on security issues

7.    Iraqi lawmakers demanding an emergency session of Parliament to discuss deteriorating security

8.    Oil and gas law will be discussed after recess

9.    Leaders will meet to resolve ministry of National Security

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.    Boots on the ground

2.    KTF Wells Fargo bank rumor

3.    Interesting bank rumor

4.    Update on Panama HSBC cash in

5.    RV was done 1/11

 

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.    Kaperoni chat

Where Are We At?

1.      Today’s news was mainly focused on the government formation.  Barzani continues to implement his plan to complete the formation of the government. There is also news of Maliki working with Kuwait on their outstanding issues.   Since Parliament has taken recess, there has been news of the issues surrounding the security ministries.  This news continues today, but today is the first time I’ve seen the word “urgent” used.  In the general case, the government formation appears to have taken front and center.  The escalating violence in the streets appears to be putting pressure on the government to form, which is also likely related to their sense of urgency.  Also, Biden’s name was mentioned and within the context of helping Iraq with their security files, which means he will help them finalize the security ministry.  

2.      The oil and gas law has come up for a second time now.  There have been some who have said the HCL is done, but we are seeing news today where they are saying they need to discuss it in Parliament.  It appears that more work needs to be done.  Or, perhaps it is done and there are important items to be discussed. 

3.      In terms of rumors, the bank rumors are appearing from many and with more frequency.  They appear to be consistent.  I’m not sure if that is because much of the research and news of the bank activity rumors is coming from one group, or if it is because all the banks are truly doing the same things…..training and ordering large quantities of money. 

What’s Left?

1. Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3. Formal announcement of government

4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6. RV/RI

7. HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.      Given the escalating state of violence plus the upcoming Arab summit in March, Iraq must act with a high sense of urgency to complete the government.  I’ve seen nothing concrete that says that the summit will not take place if Iraq doesn’t have a government in place, but I do believe it makes sense that Iraq finalizes the security positions prior to the summit.  It has been said in the articles that the security ministry is critical to their economic, social, and political stability. 

2.      I have seen many bank rumors during the time I’ve been invested.  I’ve heard about how banks have trained their employees for foreign currency exchanges.  I’ve heard how bank employees were told they couldn’t take vacations for a few weeks.  What’s new?  I have not heard rumors of banks increasing their reserves.  I also have not seen anything persist like the cash in rumors reported to have happened in Kuwait, Jordan, Panama, and Hong Kong.  Further, I’ve never had any confidence in the past bank rumors.  But, on the Middle East cash outs, I know of at least a couple people who are adamant it has happened.  I also include Forex in the mix of the bank rumors.  For me, when I look at all the bank rumors now, I see a trend that I can’t ignore.  I can no longer ignore the bank rumors the way I have in the past.

1-22-11 Athena rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Had a 2 hour private conference call yesterday with very high level sources
2. When Terry K said it was done and cited the rate, he was right
3. Will not show until after CBI updates on Sunday
4. All news of people cashing in at banks in other countries is true
5. Each individual bank made decisions to profit. They knew the rate
6. Monday is cash in, but one source said maybe Tuesday
7. One source said TK has been right, but the RV was stopped 6 different times
8. Terry has great sources. He was never wrong
9. Rate is high as evidenced by some banks cashing in at over $3
10. Thing 1 and 2 stuck their necks way out
11. Seeing it on Forex was huge as the IQD is not exotic anymore

1-22-11 Leaders will meet to resolve Ministry of National Security: Biden may intervene according to Iraqi List

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Political blocs will meet this week to resolve the Department of Homeland Security
2. Kurdish bloc will present its position on the ministerial position relating to the distribution of the security ministries
3. The List said that Biden will intervene to help resolve the issues