Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. Another day of fragmented news. The Council of Ministers plan to hold an emergency meeting tomorrow to activate the work of the ministries, governors, and to develop urgent operational plans. In related news
2. Talabani was reported to have met with the former British Minister John Major. Talabani said Iraq has made considerable achievements after the liberation from dictatorship in the areas of politics, economy, development and social progress
3. Sistani hailed the demonstrations and warned the government on the current approach in the management of the state. He invited them to take critical decisions regarding canceling privileges of members of the House, provincial councils, senior officials, and he told them to refrain from the development of new government positions
4. The UN prepared a comprehensive briefing book on Iraq. In the Economic Development Recommendations section, the reports states they recommend Iraq implement an appropriate monetary and exchange rate policy framework to preserve hard-won gains in disinflation and de-dolarization
5. In government formation news, a member of the Kurdistan coalition said Chalabi was never formally nominated for the Interior Minister. Othman said he learned of Chalabi’s nomination through the media. He also said that the ministries will be agreed upon during the close of the period, if not, the blocs would settle the matter
6. In other news, the permanent representative to the Arab League Al-Harithi said the matter of whether the Arab summit in Baghdad will take place will be decided on during the upcoming meeting of the Arab foreign Ministers
7. Regarding China, the Deputy of Foreign Affairs from China said that they seek to promote the work of Chinese companies in projects within the oil, electricity, construction and reconstruction underway in Iraq
8. Parliament decided to postpone Monday’s meeting until 3/6. The delay is to allow them to fully communicate with citizens and identify their needs, demands, and to provide feedback to the House
9. On the rumor front, one person pretended to be part of media in an effort to talk with Neil Wollen regarding an article he wrote. He didn’t get Neil, but he reported he spoke with the best friend of his assistant. The lady told him that Iraq is seeking the highest rate and they will RV when they are read despite the outside pressures. Okie says that the budget is now official and that the base rate is $3.22. He said that since the budget is official, they can now spend the budget at the RV rate
What’s left?
1. Ratification of budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on budget : Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration online
5. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
6. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
7. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
8. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
9. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Whether Iraq is sincere or not, they are making it very clear their priorities are addressing the demands of the citizens; hence their desire to postpone Parliament’s meeting until 3/6 in order to spend time with the citizens listening to their demands.
2. The most interesting news today was related to the UN briefing report. To me, they made it clear that they want Iraq to implement the exchange rate mechanism (RV). The next most interesting information from today was the rumor about the person impersonating media personnel. Apart from this, it appears we may have a wait, unless Parliament works behind the scenes to finish the government. That said, if the person who pretended to be associated with media is right, the government formation and announcement may not necessarily bring the RV given that Iraq must appear to be stable, self-sufficient, and sovereign. Even if they passed these three tests, can they get the highest rate possible in today’s environment? If they don’t think they will, and they will hold out until they can get the highest rate, then we will wait more
