2-26-11 Skype chat - Okie Oil Man on MTT

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. Okie has been on the phone with Iraq for the last 2 hours
2. Base rate is $3.22
3. GOI is seated and budget is now official as of 2am
4. Next week is our week
5. Over 3,000 contractors paid
6. 30% of the budget was released today; they are spending money now
7. Okie is saying on the call that the UST is there to help them RV since they do not know how to do it
8. Since the budget is "official", they can now spend the budget at the RV rate

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2:33 PM  Okie is saying this live on MTT [****] He has been on the phone with Iraq for 2 hours [****] Base rate 3.22 he says [****] The Gov is seated and Budget is passed and NOW official as of 2 am [****] He said Gov is seated and next week is our week and He prays it is true - because it is coming strate from Iraq with a translator for the last several hours [****] okie has been on phone with iraq - budget was only officially settled this morning at 2 am their time - base rate is approx $3.22 - parliament meeting this afternoon - smoke screens have been there - government is seated - budget is passed and made official at 2 am this morning - now paying in dinar to employees - loading smart cards tuesday - [****] [****] The official GOV has now been formed! Over 3000 contractors paid - Budget in effect NOW officially! It is an absolute that we will have an RV with in the next few days OKIE says! [****] Today they launched 30% of the Budget today - they are spending MONEY NOW!! [****] Okie says he is just the messenger - He has NO agenda but to deliver the NEWEST information given to all of us! [****] blueice114 does okie think we are good for next week [*****]  - Yes [****] Timeline tonight - Wed. 

 

2-26-11 Frank26 Post: KTF Missions 2/25/11

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

The most important or interesting items from Frank's post are below

1. What happened with the demonstrations is good for our investments
2. TV said citizens in general were well behaved
3. TV interviewed Iraqis on the streets and 2 things were consistent.  They want their economy and currency to be strong
4. Iraqi's told TV they will do one demonstration per month until their demands are met by Maliki
5. Frank believes the violence will escalate with each demonstration
6. Frank is suggesting that Maliki's request for some leaders to resign is related to the idea that "sewers had to be cleaned"
7. Maliki told people on TV their ration cards would not be ready, but that he would give them 15,000 IQDs this coming Sunday
8. Maliki hints that the GOI spots are still being fought for and that he will give the 3 remaining ministries this Sunday
9. Delta says that the articles are exaggerating right now
10. The demonstrations asked 2 important questions during the noise...#3 above
11. On the 1st of March, the budget goes into effect.  It would be tragic if it were left at 1170

2-26-11 UN prepares comprehensive Briefing Book on Iraq

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The UN prepared a briefing book, which was created by international partners for the purpose of informing forthcoming discussions between Iraqi authorities and international partners on key areas of mutual interest
2. There are 2 parts:

• Part I addresses key policy issues, including: macroeconomic challenges; development planning and prioritization; governance and public sector reform; anti-corruption; private sector development; social protection; and the challenges of regional cooperation and internal disputed territories.
• Part II focuses on sectoral and cross-cutting issues, including: human rights protection, civil society and the media; gender mainstreaming; basic social services; water resources management; agriculture; environment; energy; transport and telecommunications; and cultural heritage.

3. An except from the Economic Development Challenges Recommendation section is below.

RECOMMENDATIONS
Continue to adhere to a sound monetary and exchange-rate policy framework. To preserve
hard-won gains in disinflation and de-dollarization, an appropriate monetary and exchange-rate
policy framework needs to be set in place. In that regard, maintaining a healthy level of
international reserves is crucial in preserving the stability of the Iraqi dinar, and in avoiding the
resurgence of currency substitution and inflation with accompanying socioeconomic effects,
particularly on the poor. To address this, monetary authorities should continue to carefully
monitor the emergence of possible inflationary pressures in the economy.

Isn't that interesting?  "To preserve had-won gains in disinflation and de-dollarization, an appropriate monetary and exchange rate framework needs to be set in place".  Please note there are many tools that can be used to support a country's monetary policy.   One such tool is exchange rates.  So, this recommendation is for Iraq to use exchange rates to support their monetary policy in order to preserve the gains in disinflation and de-dollarization (removal of US dollars).   The words "to be set in place" are also important because they tell us they obviously haven't yet put this exchange rate framework in place.  Now what could this all mean?  RV?

2-26-11 Sistani hails Friday’s demonstrations; Warns GOI of the repercussions if they don’t continue efforts

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The religious authority, al-Sistani, hailed the demonstrations witnessed by the country on Friday
2. He warned the Iraqi government on the current approach in the management of the state and invited them to take critical decisions regarding canceling privileges of members of the House, past and present provincial councils, senior officials, and told them to refrain from the development of new government positions because of the large sums of money it will take to fund them
3. He called for the House and the GOI to take serious and concrete steps to improve public services and noted that these measures should improve the power and the ration card items, provide jobs, and fight against rampant corruption in various government departments

Sounds like he's referring to Allawi's National Council group?

2-26-11 Talabani meets with former British Prime Minister John Major in Kuwait

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. In Kuwait, Talabani met with 26 heads and former British Prime Minister John Major
2. Talabani said during his meeting that Iraq has made considerable achievements after the liberation from dictatorship in the areas of politics, economy, development and social progress in the country
3. In the same context, he also shed light on the political process and democracy emerging in Iraq, as well as the most important political and security challenges and other outstanding issues

2-26-11 GOI Spokesman: Parliament to hold emergency meeting tomorrow

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN

1. The Council of Ministers will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow to activate the work of the ministries, governors, and the development of urgent operational plans

2-25-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       Breaking news - violence in Iraq

2.       Iraq Trade Ministry: Iraq’s WTO ascension; Asking for US support over next few days

3.       Source: Maliki, Barzani, and Allawi to meet next week

4.       Economic Commission: Iraq’s budget deficit will be addressed by raising revenue

5.       Baghdad province: investment will be able to solve all the crises occurring in the country

6.       Commerce Minister announces the distribution of the amounts of compensatory early next week

7.       end demonstrations in Karbala and local governments are implementing demands

8.       9 dead and 120 wounded, the outcome of events Friday in Iraq's provinces

9.       Nujafi says iraq in new phrase and parliament is supreme

10.   Hasnawi: Parliament may pass a resolution Monday to suspend the first sacking of the provincial councils

11.   Basra governor resignation confirmed

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       None

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       Skype chat - Ray's update from Steve I

Where Are We At?

1.       It goes without saying that the big news of the day is the demonstrations.  At last count, 11 were killed, 51 policemen were wounded, and 120 people were wounded.  Also, buildings were burned, including the government building in Fallujah.  As a result of the demonstrations, Maliki asked for officials in some provinces to step down, and the governor of Basra announced his resignation.  Some officials received protestor’s demands at the end of the demonstration.  In related news, Parliament said they will be making the decisions on which government officials should either be suspended or be asked to step down

2.       In government formation news, it was reported that Maliki, Barzani, and Allawi will meet next week to discuss the security postions as well as the National Council

3.       On the budget, it was reported that the deficit would be closed by unplanned revenues from either increased oil production or the price of oil

4.       In miscellaneous news, Nujaifi said that Iraq is passing through a new phase which is developing plans for reform and pointed out that Parliament will take a new supreme authority in the country.  Also, it was reported by the trade minister that the distribution of compensatory payments for the ration card items will go out next week

5.       On the rumor front, Ray said that the TV said they will present the 3 security candidates in Parliament next week

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget – Done!

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.      February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.      February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!

3.      February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.      February 25  -- Large demonstration

5.      February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

6.      March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.      May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies

8.      May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.      June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.       I read something where someone said that the demonstrations today were peaceful as expected.  Given the thousands that attended and the statistics above, I guess one could make that argument.  But, the demonstrations seemed pretty violent to me.  I watched some of it live and saw policement being pelted by all kinds of things.  They were also wielding their batons trying to hit demonstrators, and the demonstrators were doing their fair share of violent acts.  In any case, I think the demonstrations were effective in terms of getting the government to seriously focus on their demands.  Nujaifi’s comment about Iraq passing through a new phase which is developing plans for reform is likely related directly to this idea

2.       Regarding the government formation, the news and a rumor from Ray state that the security positions will be presented next week.  Iraq’s week starts on Sunday.  Also, if you look above, you’ll see there is a constitutional deadline of the 28^th for Maliki to form the government.  I’m not sure if that is truly the case, but it was stated in an article by a member of the state of law, which I have an entry for here.  On the 9^th of this month, he stated that the Constitution allows a commander to nominate the appropriate people to the post and resolve the security files by the end of the month.  Let’s hope Maliki, Allawi, and Barzani have that meeting before the 28^th

3.       Going back to Nujaifi’s comment about parliament taking a new supreme authority in the country, I find that interesting.  What does that mean?  What’s that mean in relation to Maliki?  Look what happened today when Maliki asked some officials to step down.  Parliament said they’d review those decisions and make the decisions on who will or will not step down.  That happened to Maliki?  Is he truly losing his power as some are suggesting?  Interesting.  The members of parliament are getting braver by the moment!